Donald Trump.
To some he is a paragon of everything that’s wrong with politics today – the rampant partisanship, political bullying, self-righteous snobbery, and out-of-touchness that to many characterize the far right.
To others he represents the correction of modern political softness – the political correctness, dishonesty, equivocation, and failure to seriously discuss difficult issues that to many characterize the far left.
Some Republicans praise Trump’s rise – hailing him as a triumphant hero on course to set politics aright. Other Republican’s despair at his apparent popularity – worrying that he represents a new course for the party towards a more radical and less inclusive clubhouse for those on the far right.
Regardless of where one falls on this spectrum, Trump’s rise will ultimately be a good thing for the Republican Party.
Consider two potential scenarios. In the first, Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination and runs for President against either Hillary Clinton or (perhaps) Joe Biden. Regardless of his opponent, Trump’s defeat is all but certain. He does not have the popular appeal with anyone outside of the right of wing of the Republican Party, and furthermore he has up until now demonstrated little ability to reach out to other groups for support. This means that the U.S. will face at least another four year under a Democratic presidency. Since FDR, no party has won more than three consecutive elections, and it is likely that after another four years of a Democratic President, far more American’s will search for something different. Trump’s run, then, would provide an opportunity for the Republican Party to demonstrate that a viable candidate must reject the blatant partisanship characteristic of both Trump’s rhetoric and the current President’s policies, and seek prudent compromise on the issues of the day. It provides a way for the Republican Party to rebrand itself both externally and internally.
An alternative scenario (and in my view, a far more likely one) is that Trump loses the Republican candidacy. This would trigger a profound split within the Republican Party between the establishment and the tea party. This split would allow Republican’s to more clearly articulate their positions and would force those on each side of the split to clearly identify not only what they believe policy should look like, but also how politics should be done – through compromise and trust, or through partisan solidarity and force. Given Trump’s bombshell (or was it a dud?) that he wouldn’t rule out a third party bid, it is increasingly likely that Republican’s would be faced with a choice between an establishment Republican and a more radical candidate like Trump. This is good for Republican’s because it will allow for an honest evaluation between the two approaches. The loser in the contest will have been definitively shown to hold the weaker vision of the party, and the Republican Party will be stronger at the other end through a renewed focus and greater unity behind a common purpose.
Trump’s candidacy will prove to be a boon to Republicans in the long-term, despite his current Titanic-like status.
Kendall on the Hill 